Note · 4 min read · By Tim Wilkes

The expensive plan problem.

Why most transformations fail before they meet a single competitor.

TW
Tim Wilkes
Published on launch · 4 min read

There's a sentence I've been using with C-suites for the last few years that lands harder than almost anything else I say in the room.

A brilliant strategy, run by people who aren't ready, on tools nobody trusts, is just an expensive plan.

It lands because every senior leader has been inside one. Often more than one. The strategy was good. The deck was beautiful. The McKinsey alumni in the room nodded their heads. The CFO signed the budget. The CEO did the all-hands. And then, eighteen months later, the strategy was being quietly retired in favour of the next one, with a polite note about “evolving market conditions”. The actual market conditions had not evolved much. The strategy had collided with its own organisation.

I want to write down why this happens, because it isn't a strategy problem.

The maths nobody runs

Most strategies are scoped on the assumption that the people will execute, the tools will support, and the operating model will hold. Three big assumptions, each of them treated as a footnote. Strategy gets the spotlight. Execution gets the appendix.

What we're learning, slowly, is that the appendix is where the money goes.

A McKinsey study a few years ago put the failure rate of large transformations at around seventy percent. The Boston Consulting Group puts it higher, depending on how you slice it. Bain has its own number, also in that range. The single most consistent finding across all the failure-rate research is that the strategy itself is rarely the problem. The strategy was usually fine. What killed it was the gap between what the strategy assumed about the rest of the system and what the rest of the system actually was.

The maths nobody runs, before the strategy gets signed off, is the readiness maths.

What “ready” actually means

In the behavioural science literature, there's a concept called psychological readiness for change. It has decades of evidence behind it. The short version: people don't execute a strategy because someone told them to. They execute when three things are true at once.

They have to believe the change is necessary. They have to believe they can do it. They have to believe the organisation has set them up to succeed. Take any one of those three away, and execution drops off a cliff.

Most transformation programmes assume all three are present and proceed to plan the work. The work is mostly fine. The three assumptions are mostly wrong.

This is the part of the expensive plan problem that drives the cost: the plan is paying for the execution of work the people doing it don't fully believe in, on tools they're not fluent with, in an operating model that hasn't yet been updated to reflect the new strategy. Each one of those three frictions adds drag. The three together compound into a stalled programme.

The plan is paying for the execution of work the people doing it don't fully believe in, on tools they're not fluent with, in an operating model that hasn't caught up.

Why the readiness pillar pays for itself

The reason Both-ism, the founding conviction at The Future Ready Agency, has the structure it does, is that those three frictions map cleanly onto the three pillars.

Organisational readiness handles the operating-model question. Have we redesigned the structure to make the new strategy executable, or have we asked an old structure to deliver a new outcome?

People readiness handles the belief question. Are the people who have to execute it actually equipped to, and have we built the conditions in which they can?

AI readiness, the newest pillar, handles a version of the tools question. Are the systems the work runs on trusted, fluent, and governed? Or are they sitting in someone's procurement queue?

The investment in readiness across the three pillars is, on the maths I've seen, a fraction of the cost of running a transformation that fails. Most CFOs we work with reach the same conclusion within about ten minutes of seeing it laid out properly.

A small habit that helps

If you're a C-suite leader reading this, here's the question I'd run past your team before signing off on the next big plan.

Are the people, the systems, and the org actually ready for what we're about to ask them to do?

Don't ask it as a yes-no. Ask it as a scored question, even if the scoring is informal. One to five on each. If any of the three scores below a three, the plan you're about to sign off is, in technical terms, going to be expensive.

Both-ism is the operating answer to that question.

Most plans don't survive contact with their own organisations. The ones that do, almost without exception, were the ones where someone asked the readiness question before, not after.

Most plans don't survive contact with their own organisations. The ones that do were ready before, not after.
TIM WILKES · STRATEGIC PARTNER, FRA
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

What does ready score for you?

The Future Readiness diagnostic gives you the scored picture across all three pillars. Thirty minutes. Free. Honest.

Tim Wilkes
Strategic Partner (AI & Behavioural Science), The Future Ready Agency · Founder, Pathos Services

Change doesn't fail on the strategy. It fails on the story.

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